Kubva 2025, musika wesarufa wepamba wakasangana nekukwira kwemitengo, nemitengo ichikwira kubva pa1,500 yuan/tani pakutanga kwegore kusvika pamusoro pe3,800 yuan/tani parizvino, kuwedzera kweinodarika zana, ichisvika padanho idzva mumakore achangopfuura. Seyakakosha kemikari yakabikwa, mutengo uri kukwira wesarufa wakanganisa zvakananga indasitiri yepasi, uyesulfur dioxidemusika, uyo unoshandisa sarufa sechinhu chayo chepakati, wakatarisana nekushomeka kwemitengo. Mutyairi mukuru wekutenderera uku kwemutengo unowedzera kunobva mukusaenzana kwakanyanya pakati pekupa uye kudiwa mumusika wepasi rose wesarufa.

Kuenderera mberi kwechibvumirano chekupa kune dzimwe nyika kwakawedzera gaka rekupa nekuda kwezvikonzero zvakawanda.

Global sulfur supply inotsamira zvakanyanya pamafuta uye gasi kugadzirisa byproducts. Huwandu hwesarufa yepasi rose muna 2024 hwaive hunosvika 80.7 miriyoni matani, asi kuwanikwa kwaita chibvumirano zvakanyanya gore rino. Middle East ndiyo inonyanya kutengesa pasi rose, inoverengera makumi matatu nembiri muzana, asi zviwanikwa zvayo zvakagadzirirwa kupa misika iri kusimukira yakaita seIndonesia, ichidzikamisa kuwanikwa kwayo kumusika weChina.

Russia, chinyakare chikuru mutengesi wesarufa, yakamboverengera 15% -20% yekugadzirwa kwepasirese. Nekudaro, nekuda kwekunetsana kweRussia-Ukraine, kugadzikana kwemabasa ekunatsa kwakadzikira zvakanyanya, uye ingangoita 40% yekugadzira yakakanganiswa. Kutengeswa kwayo kunze kwakadzika kubva pamamiriyoni mazana matatu nemazana manomwe pagore gore risati rasvika 2022 kusvika kumatani ane miriyoni 1.5 muna 2023. Mukutanga kwaNovember 2025, kurambidzwa kunze kwenyika kwakapihwa, kurambidza kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kumasangano ari kunze kweEU kusvika pakupera kwegore, zvichiwedzera kucheka dzimwe nzira dzekupa nyika.

Pamusoro pezvo, kutorwa kwakapararira kwesimba idzva kwakonzera kudzikira kwekushandiswa kwesimba remagetsi echinyakare sepeturu nedhiziri. Yakabatana neOPEC + nyika dzinogadzira oiri 'kuitwa kwechibvumirano chekucheka mafuta asina kuchena, kukura kwehuwandu hwemafuta epasi rose uye gasi kuderera, uye kukura kwesarufa ne-chigadzirwa kugadzirwa kwadzikira zvakanyanya. Zvichakadaro, mamwe mafinefiri muCentral Asia akadzikisa zvakanyanya kuburitsa kwavo nekuda kwekugadziriswa kana kuderera kwezviwanikwa zviripo, zvichiwedzera kuwedzera gaka rekupa kwepasirese.

Kudiwa kwenyika dzakawanda kunokura mukuwirirana

Nepo kupihwa kuri kuita chibvumirano, kudiwa kwenyika dzese kwesarufa kuri kuratidza kukura kwechimiro. Indonesia, senzvimbo yakakosha yekuwedzera kudiwa, ine kudiwa kwakasimba kwesarufa kubva kumapurojekiti ekunyungudutsa nickel-cobalt (anoshandiswa kugadzira zvinhu zvebhatiri) nemakambani emuno akadai seTsingshan neHuayou. Kuwedzera kudiwa kunotarisirwa kudarika 7 miriyoni matani kubva 2025 kusvika 2027. One toni yekugadzira nickel inoda matani gumi esarufa, zvakanyanya kutsausa pasi rose.

Iko kudiwa kwakaoma muchikamu chekurima kunopawo rutsigiro. Kudiwa kwepasi rose kwefetereza yephosphate kwakagadzikana mukati memwaka wekudyara kwechirimo, nepo sarufa inokwana 52.75% yekugadzirwa kwefosifaiti, zvichiwedzera kuwedzera kupihwa uye kuda kusaenzana mumusika wepasi rose wesarufa.

Musika wesulfure dioxide unokanganiswa nekutapurirana mutengo

Sulfur ndiyo inonyanya kushandiswa kugadzirasulfur dioxide. Inenge 60% yeChina yemvura sulfur dioxide yekugadzira simba inoshandisa nzira dzekugadzira sarufa. Kupetwa kaviri kwemitengo yesarufa kwakakwidza zvakananga mutengo wayo wekugadzira.

Market Outlook: Mitengo Yakakwira isingaite Kuchinja munguva pfupi

Tichitarisa kumberi kuna 2026, iyo yakaomesesa-yekuda chiyero mumusika wesarufa haigone kuvandudza zvakanyanya. Hunhu hutsva hwekugadzira pasi rose huri kunonoka. Vaongorori vanofanotaura kuti, mumamiriro ezvinhu ane tariro, mitengo yesarufa inogona kudarika zviuru zvishanu zveyuan/ton muna 2026.

Somugumisiro, thesulfur dioxidemusika inogona kuenderera mberi kwayo ine mwero kukwira. Nemitemo yezvakatipoteredza inowedzera kuomesera,sulfur dioxidevagadziri vane mabhenefiti mumhando dzehupfumi dzakatenderedza uye mamwe maitiro vanowana mukwikwidzi, uye kutariswa kwemaindasitiri kunotarisirwa kuwedzera. Kuchinja kwenguva refu mune yepasi rose sulfur supply-demand pattern icharamba ichikanganisa mutengo uye kukwikwidza mamiriro eiyo indasitiri chain.

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